Bullish on the Cavaliers

The culture of losing has become deeply embedded in the Cleveland sports fan’s psyche. We are a town dominated in attention and affection for the perennially putrid Browns. Trends point to the affection waning, but the attention, vitriolic or otherwise, is still pervasive. The team has given absolutely nothing to its fans in return for their devotion since it came back in 1999. It’s been two outliers of winning seasons and a ton of terrible football. This is in the NFL, the league with the most socialist financial model, and the most consistently level playing field. Market size matters not in today’s pro football, but the Browns have not been able to field even a respectable team for all of their resurrected existence. By any objective or subjective measure, they suck.

The Tribe is to be admired for frugal chutzpah, but even last year’s joy ride didn’t even amount to a winning season. They are trying though, hampered by an owner’s shallow pockets and a half-filled stadium. I am predictably optimistic about their chances in 2012, but really wouldn’t be surprised by anything. A lot has to go right for the Tribe. Grady Sizemore must channel his inner Ponce de Leon and show some of his early twenties form. Shin-Soo Choo has to shake the shame of his lost year. The pitching staff has to stay healthy and very productive. In a league with superpowers in Anaheim, Boston, New York, and Texas, and big budgets in Detroit and Chicago, the Tribe must emerge from the flea market ready for the runway. Considering these inherent disadvantages, you have to give it to Shapiro, Antonetti, Acta and the gang for competing.

Which brings us to the active bunch, the Cavaliers. They have the least tradition of the Cleveland franchises but the most recent relevant success. They also, more recently, endured one of the most brutal stretches of basketball in NBA history. Considering this dichotomy, it is understandable that many casual fans don’t know what to make of this current team.

Conventional wisdom, at least the sports talk radio version, is that the team has to be VERY bad again, to get another top draft pick, and continue the long rebuilding process. They are spunky now, but darn them, these wins are costing us ping pong balls.

This is a twisted side effect of being a Cavs fan in a Browns world. The Browns have conditioned us to think that we are always several years away, and the day the tailgate grills burn most optimistically is in April. On draft day. I am sorry, but this is pathetic, and the Cavs don’t have to act this way. They are a .500 team through 12 games, and their longest road trip of the season is now in the rear view mirror.

Are they an NBA title contender? No. Can they contend for the playoffs in the Eastern Conference this year? The answer is decisively yes. Should they try to contend this year? Even more decisively, yes.

John Hollinger of espn.com has a sabermetric ranking system for all teams. It factors margin of victory, strength of schedule, recent performance, and other factors, and it has proven to be a better predictive tool than anecdotal human rankings. Through just over ten games, which is admittedly a small sample size, here are the teams in the Eastern Conference that rank above the Cavs: Philadelphia, Chicago, Miami, Atlanta, Orlando, and Indiana. The Sixers have been a huge surprise. The other five teams were in the playoffs last year and will probably make it this year. Chicago and Miami, seemingly, should rise to the top of this group.

Beneath the Cavs are New York, Boston, Milwaukee, Toronto, New Jersey, Charlotte, Detroit, and Washington. New York and Boston should be better, but their fatal flaws of age and attrition (Boston) and sheer dysfunction (New York) could very plausibly derail either one or both of these teams. I honestly think all the rest of these teams are worse than the Cavs, though could see Toronto or Milwaukee being frisky.

So realistically, the Cavs could be leapfrogged by one of the supposed contenders (say New York), and be in a three way fight for the eighth playoff seed with a geriatric Celtics team wheeling out Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett on the third night of a back to back to back, and fellow upstart to be named later, say the Cavs current nemesis Toronto. So what? Well, fighting for the eighth seed isn’t anything special is it?

Let’s now assume Miami is the one seed. That is worth fighting for.

The shortened schedule works in the Cavs favor. They have been playing ten deep, with none of the starters averaging huge minutes. They are a seriously flawed team to be sure. Their starters at the wing positions are replacement level players. Another grinder of a competent big man would be a huge plus.

But this team has Kyrie Irving. And he is the real deal. I learned my lesson the hard way about getting overly attached to a preternaturally gifted teenage basketball player selected first overall by the Cavs. So I say carpe diem. Let’s live in the now, and enjoy the five or however many years we have with this guy. He is special, already the best player on the Cavs. He is not perfect. His defense is not very good. His conditioning has occasionally seemed to be an issue. But he is tremendous with the basketball. He can score inside and outside, is money from the line, and has shown flashes of being a really dynamic playmaker and facilitator.

Byron Scott has the right approach to coach this team. I know he wants to develop this squad, but each one of his wins and losses still counts against his record. He is not the kind of guy to call off the dogs for drafts picks. But he is the right guy to coach Irving and this team. His playing and coaching pedigree is perfect for this young group. His credibility is further enhanced by his poise. He seems to be a pretty good game coach too, trying to develop consistent rotations but not afraid to adjust for match ups or a hot hand.

And this team has the perpetually underrated Anderson Varejao. More than anything, it was his injury that served as the catalyst for the Cavs cataclysmic 26 game losing skid last season. When he plays, he is energetic and productive. His contributions are reflected in the stat sheet and in those less quantifiable hustle plays. He is third in the league in rebounding, and undoubtedly among the leaders in flailing limbs, incredulous smiles, and awkward finishes.

Antawn Jamison has been scoring. I will be the first to say if a reasonable offer comes along for him, the Cavs should take it. Jamison is a nice enough guy and does carry a large amount of the scoring burden for the Cavs. His "usage rate", basically a shot that measures ball hogging, is very high. He is also old (36), and can't guard wings or bigs. His benefit to this team is artificially enhanced by old school stats like points per game.

On the flip side of that is Alonzo Gee. Gee is a bull of an athlete. His game is unrefined, although it is clear that he has worked on his outside shot. This is a guy I would like to see continue to get extended minutes. His finishes at the rim pass the eye test, and his strength, speed, and quickness should enable him to become a plus level defender.

Ramon Sessions has been an excellent second point guard. He can get to the line, and is money at the line. His shooting is spotty, but he is a willing distributor, leading the team in assists. He brings energy and poise to the second unit, and his play has a more “veteran” feel now. Boobie Gibson has also filled a veteran role, the sniper guard off the bench. Until today’s win over Charlotte, his shooting has been consistently good.

And Tristen Thompson has been a revelation. Our pessimistic disposition had written off the fourth pick in the draft as a bust before he had played a game. Terrible pick in a terrible draft was the whispered notion. The engaging Thompson has been active and more league-ready than many of us thought. He blocks shots like a man and can already finish ferociously. You also get the sense with him that he is a willing student who hasn’t even scratched the surface of what he could possibly do with his long, athletic frame.

Omri Casspi hasn’t been very good. Anthony Parker is going to be workmanlike and not a whole lot more. He is an admirable pro though, and you can’t help but think his approach to the NBA work and lifestyle is providing a good model for the youngsters to emulate. Samardo Samuels, Semei Erden, and Ryan Hollins are all average to deficient big men right now.

So where are we? We have a team with some young guys who are going to get better. We have a good coach. We have players filling legitimate roles. We are a team with as many flaws, but probably not more, than the Eastern Conference also-rans we will be dueling with. So instead of trying to find out what this team’s floor is, let’s see if we can’t raise the roof. I know that nothing would be more satisfying than to welcome Miami into the Q and try to make LeBron melt with our collective angst, hurt, and pride in Cleveland. And even if we don’t make it, don’t you think fighting for a playoff spot will help more in the development of our young players than tanking it for a handful of slots in next year’s draft?

George Bernard Shaw and later Robert Kennedy once said, “some men see things as they are and say ‘why?’ I dream things that never were and say, ‘why not?’” The Cleveland Cavaliers, 2012. Why not?